A sequence of trade permits predicts the next trade
One permit predicts little. A sequence predicts a lot — measured in three cities.
The measurement
For each project we take the date of the last observed trade permit, then ask how often the target trade appears within a horizon. Projects whose horizon extends past the end of the data are excluded, so recent records cannot depress the result.
Philadelphia
| Project state | 30 d | 90 d | 365 d | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| plumbing only | 23.9% | 41.9% | 59.2% | 16,367 |
| electrical only | 26.7% | 42.7% | 55.0% | 16,041 |
| plumbing + electrical | 32.0% | 49.3% | 61.7% | 10,472 |
| plumbing + fire | 29.9% | 56.0% | 82.2% | 4,177 |
| plumbing + electrical + fire | 41.2% | 65.2% | 82.0% | 2,888 |
The control matters more than the growth: a project with a building permit but no trade sequence reaches mechanical in 2.2% of cases (n = 978). The sequence does the work, not the fact that something is being built.
It reproduces elsewhere — the clock does not
| Market | Best composition | 90 d | 365 d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | plumbing + electrical + fire | 65.2% | 82.0% |
| Austin | plumbing + electrical | 49.9% | 76.8% |
| New York | plumbing + fire + general | 32.3% | 62.2% |
At 30 days the spread between markets is two-fold; at 365 days it narrows to 1.3. The mechanism transfers. The timing does not — which is why every market is measured separately and no single national accuracy figure is published.
Direct answer
Our analysis uses the public records and sample shown below to measure a historical pattern, not to predict one future job with certainty. The answer is useful only with its jurisdiction, sample and time horizon attached; therefore each result should guide research priority and be verified against the issuing authority before commercial action.
How to use this research
These results are descriptive measurements from the stated records, market and observation window. Use them to choose what to investigate first, then verify an individual project with the issuing authority. A historical result is not a guarantee of a future permit, award or hiring decision.
Conclusion
The practical value is a narrower and more explainable research queue. The evidence is strongest when its jurisdiction, sample and horizon remain attached to the claim; that is why Projects Ahead does not turn local measurements into a single national score.