Philadelphia HVAC permits: what comes next
31 Philadelphia projects currently show plumbing, electrical and fire-protection permits without mechanical work. This page measures how often mechanical follows that exact visible sequence, rather than treating every permit as the same signal.
What the record says
When a project in Philadelphia has plumbing, electrical and fire-protection permits and no mechanical permit yet, a mechanical permit follows within 90 days in 64.3% of cases (n = 2,890).
| Within | Probability |
|---|---|
| 30 days | 41.0% |
| 60 days | 55.6% |
| 90 days | 64.3% |
| 180 days | 75.9% |
| 365 days | 81.9% |
Measured on 31,452 linked projects from public Philadelphia records. Recalculated weekly. Verify any project against the city's own database.
Which sequence predicts best here
Every market has its own. These are the compositions measured in Philadelphia.
| Project state | 30 d | 90 d | 365 d | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| plumbing + electrical + fire, no mechanical | 41.0% | 64.3% | 81.9% | 2,890 |
| plumbing + fire, no mechanical | 29.5% | 55.3% | 82.2% | 4,181 |
| plumbing + electrical, no mechanical | 31.7% | 48.7% | 61.7% | 10,492 |
Key takeaways
- The sequence is the signal. Plumbing, electrical and fire protection together are more informative than a single permit.
- The window is local. The figures above apply to Philadelphia and the stated observation horizon, not to every US market.
- Use it to prioritize research. A historical frequency can identify where to look first; it does not confirm an award or replace permit verification.
Fresh activity, last 90 days
| Trade | Permits issued | Distinct contractors |
|---|---|---|
| Plumbing | 3298 | 269 |
| Electrical | 2084 | 406 |
| Mechanical | 1096 | 381 |
| Residential Building | 1082 | 583 |
| Zoning | 857 | 307 |
| Building | 662 | 427 |
How to use this evidence
Start with a project that has the listed precursor trades and no mechanical permit. Confirm its current status in the City of Philadelphia public permit data, then use your own qualification process before contacting anyone. The useful claim is narrow: this project state historically preceded mechanical work more often than the controls in this jurisdiction.
Conclusion
Philadelphia permit sequences provide an earlier, explainable research cue for mechanical work. They are not a bid list or a guarantee: records can be delayed, amended or incomplete, so the issuing authority remains the record to verify.
The 31 open projects
Addresses, general contractor, expected window and how open the package looks — available with a subscription.